Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Short term Scenario Dow Jones Industrial

Under 13400 the target its 13000,specially with a RSI<50

Don't forget that the long term is Bullish,this it's just a short term bearish movement.

After the 200MA at 13000 the market will decide,probably another bullish move.

Be patient and always stay calm.

 

SP500 in the Long Term


I think it´s pretty clear how carefully we have to move in the markets nowadays.

From 2003 to 2008, the SP500 make a easy to follow move of about 808 points.

Now, from 2009 to 2012, the SP500 have make the 808 point, with more clear evidence of a BIG BEAR MARKET can start at any point. We have just to follow the RED TREND LINE that will make us be Bearish . The Brown TL it´s very important to see how close that Baer market will start.

But as everybody knows any market starts with a V Turn, normally they do W or X moves, to "distribute" the paper between the people that less follow the market. So we have to be smart enough to know with kind of move they are trying to make.

I think that at this point it´s easy to see that there is more room down than up, but the market still has not told us yet to put on the bear jacket, but just to keep in mind, where it is.

We see that the MACD it´s still Bullish and clearly above 0, so it´s not time to worry, but just to keep in mind what happend in the market in 07.

 “Study the past if you would define the future.”   - Confucius 

I think we will have more time, until a bear market stats, and maybe will start with a down move towards 1420 level, and again another move up towards 1500.

At that point will see ...... but stay in mind, that ...........

THE GOOD TIMES OF A BULL MARKET HAS GONE !!!!

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Presidential Election/Stock Market Cycle for the DOW


Remember that next year could be difficult for the markets. 

It´s important always to follow the big market cycles to get more changes of getting profit from the market.

Friday, July 27, 2012

After some days, watching the bull and bears fighting, with small victory for Bulls, now, i still think that bears will win in the rest of the year.


The levels for control are clear. 13.000 in the upside and 12.400 in the low side. I think this is just a lateral movement slightly in the upside. But still lateral. The next big movement is more probable that it´s Down, but the market have the last word, and until it makes higher lows, just keep watching.

Now i will go for some weeks on holidays, with no need to watch the market. Maybe the market will move up or down, with no pressure, but i thing Autumn will be quite bearish. Apple have just show has the potencial of a down move, and will start one day.

Maybe i just to bearish, maybe the goverments, politicians, know much more of everything than me, but because for me my money it´s important i doné believe in their words, and i only believe in my perspective and what the "tape" show me. To understand it, and know witch move its more probable that´s enough for me.

Be carefull, enjoy fun with family and friends, and only believe in your self, that´s who you have to be living every day with.

Take care

Tuesday, June 12, 2012

SP500 in 60 minutes chart













For me is very important the 1358 Level. In case the price moves above that price my Bear scenario will be cancelled.

Now i think that the price will go to the 61.8% retractment of the move from the 04/06, around 1292.

I think in the next days/weeks we will see prices below 1266, at least towards the 1250.

If the SP500 goes below 1260 and it doesn´t go above today max. before, it´s quite probably the price could reach the 1200 level.


Of course this "road map"  will be cancelled with prices above 1358.

Monday, June 11, 2012

Interesting videos.......
MILLION DOLLAR TRADERS




I hope you enjoy them, as much as i did.

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

COPPER .... beginning of a Bear Market


Can Copper, mark the beginning of another Big BEAR MARKET??

Nothing more to add, just see the chart, and ...... the market will tell us the thruth behind the numbers.

We have to study the past to learn about the future, although not always the past is repeated in the same way.




Work done by Kimble Charting Solutions.

http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/2012/06/doc-copper-is-breaking-down-like-it-did-in-2008-is-the-messageimpact-going-to-be-the-same/

Monday, June 4, 2012

DOW JONES

Well........... lets post my opinion about the Dow Jones

We can see how finally the price drop when it broke the rising wedge, that was channeling the prices until March'12

The price try to make another up move, but after what we see is a double top witch a trend revearsal pattern very important to follow when it takes places.




The DJ move around 1030 points from April highs (13330-12300), after try to have some kind of rebound with very little force.

When this happend the next downtrend move will also be fast. This is the second move, that will take the price in my opinion to 11.670-11.500 (very close to the 61.8 rectracment of all the up trend since september last year).

Maybe the market will decide to take some stop around the 12000 and 11850 (50% fibo retractment). At 11850, it will be a good idea to close part of our "shorts", although i think the price could make other lows its important to close positions when the price move in our favour.

In my opinion this level of 11.500 we should close all the "shorts". Depends in how we achive that level we could think in a good rebound.

In the market you should never go only with one "road map", but several road maps and very dynamic as fast as the market moves.


"Take care of your losses and the market will take care of your profits"


Thursday, May 31, 2012

GOLD



We will see how much time the 1500 level can resist.

That´s the level that decide the Future of GOLD.

At least we see Gold Prices above 1800 i will think there are more chances to see lower prices for gold. It can go to 1200 with a stop in the 1300 Level.

I´m more Bearish than Bullish in Gold but i suggest not to take any position until we see the 1800 o prices underneath 1500.

At the end the market will decide the future .......... and we have just to follow.



"The trend is your friend"

FACEBOOK


Do you find any similarity with this chart pattern......???

 Ummm looks quite similar

I think at least Facebokk should go to 31$. At that point we will have to study the next movement.

The break of a downtrend channell will give new energy to the stock, and maybe bulls could take control at take the stock to 34$.

As long as wee see new movements we can find other important levels for the stock.

Yesterday in my twitter I said: "https://twitter.com/ifibo/status/207601900038795265"
"I think between 26.70 and 25 we could the ground. No good idea to find floors in the market,but this is what my fibos say."

As you could see in my chart that was the fist important level to follow.

Lets see in the next days.........

"Will the price is above 27, i will keep thinking some kind of rebound is possible".

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

ECHO Therapeutics

ECHO Therapheutics


I can see it´s close to an important bottown in 1.59. I expect above 2.20 to have a good recovery towards the 2.90$.

The Macd is starting to turn bullish, but it need price to move forward.

A good chance it´s to enter above 2.90, with a stop in 1.58.

Under 1.58$ let´s forget the stock.

Sunday, May 27, 2012

OIL

OIL...... The markets for Shorts need to lose 89?

I think that Oil is also going to lose 89 and 88, level in which there is the 61.8% retractment of Fibonacci.

I think is going to 81. In weekly charts the price have lose the short and the long moving average and the Macd has also a selling signal activated, and moving under 0.


Well see in the next weeks/months. Until price doesn´t move over 100, i will keep think in it´s time for short in oil.

At the market we are just traders, analyst so we have just to follow the market.



BIDU

BIDU-What an extraordinary Rally, maybe its time to be Short.

Important Levels to Follow in case the 110 Level is lose.

Downtrend: 93 - 88 - 70 (point to close Shorts)




There is no point in thinking in long for a mid term position until the price move up 145.


With the weekly Macd selling signal activate, the positicion to be in the market is Short.

Allways we have to go to the market with a Stoploss activated just after we put or order in the market.

Because the market is always right, and we as humans make more mistakes, just we have to protect our earnings and possible errors.

SP500 Long Term

Lets start my Blog with my opinion of the SP500 with a long term chart.


Well, as we can see from 2009, the SP500 Index is Bullish with the normal correcction when the MACD for example turns Bearish in a weekly chart.

Át the end of 200, the Bear structure, finish with the most important structure for chart analyst, Soulder-Head-Shoulder. SP500 have just reach the objetive for that structure.

The Sp500 have move Bullish in a constant upper tendency, with the brown channel as low and high points.

Looks like the SP500 now is beginning a Bearish move, with the Macd selling signal and the price under the MA.

While the SP500 Price doesn´t move up the MA, and the Macd give us a buy point. It´s time for shorts.

I think we are moving downward to the 1.250 level. This the first level to stop the downtrend and buy shorts if we have them.

If 1.250 dosen´t stay then the SP500 will go the low level of the brown channel and the blue Primary tendency Line. This Primary Trend Line (PTL) is important to stand for the whole structure so we can think Bulls can move forward for another move.

If this level dosen´t stay then Shorts will have another golden age.

I think now it´s time for shorts until 1.250 and after longs towards the 1.500 where we can see the end of the Bullish for some time.

Maybe next week we could have some uptrend movement towards 1340-1350. That will be time for shorts again, with a stop in 1380.

Every once in a while i will study if this structure is going on, as i think.

As my first post in this blog, maybe is too long, but its important to aproach the market with a road map, of what is going on and could happen.

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